As of February 2, 2020, according to real-time data from Lilac Garden, there were 14,418 confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia, 19,544 suspected cases, 304 deaths, and 331 cures.
National defense control has achieved certain results. From January 31, the number of new suspected cases has begun to decline. On February 1, the number of new suspected cases has fallen to less than 5,000.
In the article "Thousands of Treasures, Exhausting the Yellow Sand, China's Intelligent Manufacturing Whistle | Foresee 2020", we summarized the fundamentals of China's manufacturing industry at the end of 2019. Under the influence of the declining macroeconomic growth rate), China's manufacturing industry has shown strong resilience, and overall stability has picked up.
However, the new crown epidemic brought the first super black swan in 2020. Due to postponed resumption of work, reduced demand, and PHEIC certification, the epidemic will inevitably have a certain impact on China's manufacturing economy.
On the one hand, the manufacturing industry itself will cause short-term production lag due to delays in resumption of work and deceleration in circulation; on the other hand, the impact from the fields of consumption, services, import and export will also spread to the manufacturing industry, which will reflect the manufacturing order volume Reduction of inventory.
With reference to the performance of the SARS period, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is limited, transient, and one-time. Compared to the impact of the economic cycle, the impact of the epidemic on the manufacturing industry is smaller, but compared to the impact of the SARS period on the economy The impact is greater.
What changed in China's manufacturing industry during the relatively SARS period?
Compared with the SARS period in 2003, China's manufacturing industry is no longer the same.
First, China ’s core industry has shifted from the secondary industry, which is dominated by manufacturing, to the tertiary industry. The transmission mechanism of the epidemic to the manufacturing industry may change. Second, the current cycle and international environment in which China is in With the earth-shaking changes, the general environment facing the manufacturing industry has changed. Finally, the current level of automation in China's manufacturing industry has also been greatly improved compared to 2003, and its ability to resist and repair will be greatly improved.
1. The secondary industry is no longer the strongest domestic force, and the indirect impact of the epidemic may be greater
China's tertiary industry accounted for 53.9% in 2019, exceeding 39.0% of the secondary industry; in 2003, the secondary industry accounted for the highest proportion, 45.6%.
The most direct impact of the general epidemic situation is the tertiary service industry, which is mainly catering, tourism, transportation, and retail. The direct impact on the manufacturing industry is mainly reflected in the inadequate supply of labor, raw materials, etc., and the impact transmitted by the tertiary industry reflects In terms of demand, order quantity, production mode, etc.
With the tertiary industry becoming the mainstay of China's economy, the indirect impact of this epidemic on manufacturing has been stronger than during the SARS period.